Is there a demographic dividend in the Brazilian housing market?

Eduardo L.G. Rios-Neto, Centro de Desenvolvimento e Planejamento Regional (CEDEPLAR)
Gustavo H. Givisiez, Universidade Federal Fluminense
Elzira L. Oliveira, Universidade Cândido Mendes

This paper deals with a standard applied demography exercise, associated with housing demand projection in Brazil between 2003 and 2020 in addition to some previous projection that goes back until 1992. Housing demand is projected using the sex and age specific headship rate method, combined with population projection by sex and age. After projecting the housing demand following a demographic methodology, a decomposition exercise is performed in order to explain future trends, including issues associated with the demographic dividend and gender relations in housing demand. The results obtained are mixed. There is indeed a small dividend in a decreasing housing demand for young adults, but this is more than compensated by the positive interaction between an aging population and positive headship rate age profile. The role of gender is a surprising result, with females accounting for most of the flow of new housing demand.

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Presented in Session 47: Housing